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2024 Election Coverage.

A Trump Harris matchup will not be seen again on the debate stage, but candidate matchups in the polls will only increase leading up to November.

I'm Frederica Freyberg.

Tonight on "Here& Now" we'll hear the latest matchups from Marquette Law School poll director Charles Franklin.

Then a report on the threats mounting against election workers and elected officials.

And how home values and recent tax levies might impact your wallet at year's end.

It's "Here& Now" for September 13.

>> Funding for here and Now is provided by the Focus Fund for Journalism and Friends of PBS.

Wisconsin.

between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump had voters tuning in to the ABC news presidential debate in their living rooms and at watch parties across the state, including in green Bay, where big screen allowed Democrats to follow every word and where across town, Republicans took in the debate that saw Harris Perry successfully with her challenger.

Here's a clip with the candidates responding to the issue of abortion.

>> Her vice presidential pick says abortion in the ninth month is absolutely fine.

He also says execution after birth, it's execution no longer abortion because the baby is born is okay, and that's not okay with me.

Hence, the vote.

>> There is no state in this country where it is legal to kill a baby after it's born.

Madam Vice President, I want to get your response to President Trump.

>> Well, as I said, you're going to hear a bunch of lies.

And that's not actually a surprising fact.

Let's understand how we got here.

Donald Trump hand selected three members of the United States Supreme Court with the intention that they would undo the protections of Roe v Wade.

And they did exactly as he intended.

>> How might the debate performances of the candidates move the needle in the 53 day sprint to Election Day?

We asked Marquette University Law School poll director Charles Franklin out this week with his latest survey.

And hi, Charles.

Good to be here.

So your latest survey was in the field before the debate.

But does a successful performance move the needle for a candidate?

>> I think historically, less and less recently than it did in the past.

I think good perspective is Joe Biden had an absolutely terrible debate, and he only lost about four percentage points in the polls before he dropped out.

So I think expecting a debate bump of any kind, three, 4 or 5 points would be wildly out of line with what the last debate did.

A point or two, maybe, but it may also help bring people home to their party's Moore solidify the votes for both sides.

>> So your poll was in the field immediately following the did see some movement for Kamala Harris with 52% to 48% for Harris over Donald Trump.

How does that compare to your polling last month?

Yeah, that was a couple of points up for Harris and a point down for Trump.

Remember the margin of error is 4.6.

So each of those moves is modest compared to the margin of error.

But it does reinforce the idea that Harris had a pretty good convention.

And that that showed up in this poll.

>> It's also your first poll with VP candidate Tim Walz on the ticket.

What kind of favorability does he have, and does he factor into this?

>> Of the four presidential and vice presidential, Walz is the only one with a net positive favorability plus six more favorable than unfavorable.

But he also has the largest don't know at 19%, that don't know enough about him yet, and so initially, the reaction is strong.

We asked the same question of Walz that we asked about JD Vance.

Do you think he's an excellent, good, fair or poor choice among Democrats?

90% think Walz is an excellent or good choice.

Among Republicans, it was 75%.

That said, the same thing about JD Vance the week after that convention.

So both parties are quite satisfied with their VP nominees.

Democrats are a little bit more.

>> Let's take a look at the Wisconsin U.S. Senate race.

Among registered voters, it's 52% for Tammy Baldwin to 48% for Eric Hovde.

Now, this has tightened a little.

>> It has tightened a little.

The range over recent polls has been between about a four point Baldwin lead and about a seven point lead.

It was closer to five last time, so just a smidgen closer.

One thing that's happened is Hovde has been getting better and better known.

Only 22% still say they haven't heard enough about him.

Now that was 80% in January and this time he made a little bit of progress on the favorable unfavorable dimension.

He's still net negative, but he's a little better than he was last month.

>> One thing that stood out to me in your polling on this particular race was that independents favor Baldwin by 65% to Hovde 33%.

>> The caution here is independents are a fairly small sample.

There are only about 6 or 8% of the public.

So there's a lot of margin of error there.

But what we have seen consistently is independents were favoring Trump, while Biden was still in.

They came to about evenly divided last month.

This month they're pretty strongly favoring both sets of Democrats, Harris and Baldwin.

I would be very cautious about thinking this is a permanent position because of the sample size and because independents are independents, they do change their minds and they can be so critical in the last week or two of the campaign making up their minds late.

>> Let's talk about enthusiasm to vote in your poll.

This also stood out.

72% of Democrats say they are very enthusiastic to vote, compared to 63% of Republicans.

Now, how have these numbers shifted?

Back in the spring and through the point where Biden dropped out, Republicans were 10 to 15 points or even 20 points at one stage ahead of Democrats in enthusiasm in July, when Biden dropped out and Harris had just gotten in the race, we saw Democrats close the gap in almost catch up to Republicans this month.

Democrats have pulled clearly ahead.

I should add, Republicans got more enthusiastic after their like they were lacking enthusiasm.

They gained as well.

But they've held steady this month while Democrats continued to rise.

>> What are the kinds of events that factor in particularly to enthusiasm?

thing is simply the change of candidates that Joe Biden is still quite unpopular in the state, only 41% approve of the job he was doing, and that was a tremendous drag on Democrats and boost to Republicans.

With him out and Harris having had a good stretch, news wise and presentation wise, I think that is a big part of this shift.

>> I'm talking about issues.

The top three for Wisconsin respondents were the economy, abortion and immigration was, of course, the economy kind of way outside.

But there's a sharp partisan split in.

Who cares about what issues.

partisan groups Republicans, independents and Democrats put the economy either first or second.

So that's very high for everybody.

Democrats put abortion as their top issue, but independents put it way down as an important issue.

And for Republicans, they put immigration as the second highest issue.

But independents put that quite a ways down.

So if you think about trying to appeal to those undecided or independent voters, the economy is the place where everybody cares.

And then you've got two issues that really appeal to the bases of each party, but don't seem to appeal that much to independents.

thank you very much for your work.

>> A House Committee in Washington heard this week from election officials who say they have dealt with threats from voters who distrust election results in Wisconsin, clerks and elected officials, including judges, have also been targets of disturbing election related threats "Here& Now".

Reporter Steven Potter has more on this.

>> Until a few years ago, like, never thought about my personal safety.

clerks like Melissa Kono, and one of the places that I train election workers, they had to call the sheriff because there was an observer who had gotten angry.

She's been administering elections for more than a decade as the clerk for the town of Burnside in west central Wisconsin.

so much from when I started it.

You know, I never initially thought that I would have to talk to them about de-escalation.

And how do you get Ahold of the sheriff if you're getting a threat?

>> Kono trains other municipal clerks around the state.

As an associate professor with the UW Division of Extension.

>> There are outright threats, right.

But there are also comments and things that are said that feel threatening.

>> She noticed the shift in tone around 2018. their scales.

In my machine.

And I know that, you know that you're changing my vote like things, things like that that weren't weren't there before.

Are you worried that those kind of comments could increase or evolve into threats?

Yes, definitely.

Because I think that there's a reason somebody is saying things coming into the polling place and saying things like that, like they're looking for an argument or a fight, but it's just like this extra level of concern and concern for our safety.

Like, I didn't get into being the clerk to have to stave off physical threats.

>> Kono and other clerks around Wisconsin aren't alone.

It's a nationwide problem, one that U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland addressed last week.

>> Election officials, workers and volunteers, and communities across the country have been targeted with heinous acts and threats of violence, according to an annual report released last May from the Brennan for Center justice.

officials experienced threats, harassment or abuse, and more than half of local election officials reported being concerned about the safety of their colleagues or staff.

>> And I just fear it's going to get worse.

You know, as we get closer to November, there are public officials.

I mean, we're listed publicly.

There's no way around that.

>> But election workers aren't Wisconsin Supreme Court justice Jill Karofsky knows this all too well.

>> So I personally have had several threats since I have been on the court.

The first time I received substantial threats was after the 2020 presidential election.

They were misogynistic in nature.

They were anti-Semitic in nature.

And that went on for weeks and weeks.

instance when you saw and heard about these threats?

>> It's terrifying.

Am I worried for myself?

I worried for my kids.

It's not something that you I ever conceived of.

I've been involved in Wisconsin politics and Wisconsin government since I was eight years old, and my mom ran for city council and the city of Middleton.

It's not something you think about.

And when suddenly you are confronted with it, it stops you in your tracks.

>> According to the state Supreme Court, Marshall's office, there were nearly 150 threats made against Wisconsin judges last year.

Justice Karofsky says that heated political rhetoric and election fraud conspiracies are fueling the fire.

were making these threats were extremists on the fringe.

That is no longer the case.

Now we have leaders talking about things like Bloodbaths for God's sakes.

So we all need to be vigilant.

>> Karofsky also says that threats like she's received have wide ranging and grand implications on society as a whole.

>> They are trying to instill fear in me, so I will make a decision not based on the law.

So I will make a decision because I am scared.

>> How does that impact, our elective process or democracy as a whole?

our democracy.

I think the public needs to understand these threats are real.

I think we all have an obligation in our democracy to be ever vigilant about these threats.

>> Governor Tony Evers did sign a bipartisan package of bills related to judicial security last March.

It covered making a judge's personal information and security detail private, and made it a crime to protest outside a judge's home.

Karofsky, however, says simply that more security is needed.

>> We need to dedicate more resources to protecting people like me who who are being the recipients of these threats.

>> On the other side of these threats are those who are making them.

And for that part, criminal prosecution is possibl.

Fond du Lac County District Attorney Eric Toney says his office has charged and prosecuted a few threat related cases over the years.

>> We have one case where a legislator was threatened as well, and we also see threats to judges.

At times, we're handling one in another county as a special prosecution.

I've had a few death threats made to me during my time as Da Toney says, that just like the range of targets, the different types of ways that threats are delivered also varies.

It can really be anything.

It can be a voice message, it can be a phone call, it could be a letter, it could be something in writing.

It could be an oral statement to somebody.

It can be things over the internet.

We see how I think when people can have some anonymity on the internet.

We see some very toxic words that are put out on social media.

>> In a recent case prosecuted by Tony's office, a 75 year old fond du Lac County man was convicted after threatening to kill state lawmakers that if they pass a law that they will be killed and murdered.

>> That's a threat to democracy.

And so we took that very seriously in this case, he was an elderly man, no firearms and no prior criminal history over 70.

And so ultimately the sentence was only a few days in jail.

What I have liked to have seen more.

Yes, but this individual now has a felony conviction.

He cannot purchase a firearm.

And so there is an added sense of security in that respect.

>> Threats and security concerns could also discourage some candidates from running for office.

up the higher the level of office that someone looks at, no matter what level of government.

>> Tony says that threats to civil servants will not be tolerated.

in politics, and if that ever occurs, we're going to aggressively investigate and prosecute that threats have no place in politics for "Here& Now".

>> I'm Steven Potter signatures or address on their cases of Covid have been increasing since August and are expected to keep rising as cold weather brings people indoors.

>> This as overall vaccine uptake continues to decline.

State health officials are encouraging people to get the newest Covid and flu vaccines, but as for required vaccinations, more K-12 students are getting personal conviction waivers a matter of concern as the vaccine rate for measles continues to fall well below what's needed to prevent an outbreak.

>> 2024 has shown a number of measles outbreaks in the US, most notably are our neighbors of Minnesota, are currently experiencing a measles outbreak.

I think they have about 49 cases with at least 11 of them having been hospitalized and the majority of these cases are occurring in unvaccinated children.

So we do know that we've got pockets in our communities and in our schools that have much lower rates and could be ripe for, you know, an outbreak occurring if measles were introduced.

sitting in a house, you own your home values remain high, and the 2024 increase, while slowed, is still up more than 8.5%.

Now that's not great news.

If you're in the market to buy a house.

And how might it affect your property tax bill come December?

Here to unpack the numbers from a recent report from the Wisconsin Policy Forum is its director, Jason Stein.

And thanks for being here.

Thank you for having me.

So the headline of your report, Wisconsin Property Tax Levies, see the biggest increase since 2007, but that actually cuts the tax rate.

So what does that mean we can expect when we open our December tax bill.

Right.

>> So the bills back in December of last year was a significant increase.

Now that's in the gross levy.

So there are state tax credits that lower that a little bit.

But it's still a very significant increase that we saw in December 2023.

And I think December 2024 bills are shaping up to be a big increase as well, because if you look at the statewide level, there was a large referendum that passed $250 million in the Milwaukee public Schools in Milwaukee and then in Madison.

We see two significant school referenda up and in many, you know, surrounding Dane County districts.

So I think we're going to see some significant increases in December.

>> So we were also talking about home values.

Now, those increases in home values have cooled, but they are still historically high.

>> Right?

I think what we could say is they're still rising rapidly.

Home values, just maybe not at ridiculous speeds as we saw in 2022.

And 2023.

>> So I mean, that's good.

As we said, if you're if you're sitting in a house that you own, but what about people who are trying to get into that market?

>> I mean, I think that's something to watch because, you know, there's already been a lot of angst and worry for, you know, the younger generations as they try and angle their way into that market, you know, we are seeing we have seen uptick in construction of particularly of multi-family housing, but to a lesser extent of single family housing.

So that will help.

But, you know, we're still do not seem to be meeting the demand with just the housing stock we have and the construction projects in the pipeline as to taxes on properties, property tax revenues don't seem to be keeping pace for local governments and schools, some of which, like Madison, that you spoke to find themselves with deep budget holes in both the city and school coffers.

>> But how could a growing city like Madison be in that place?

>> When you look at cities, it does help under state law, if a city is growing like Madison is, and adding new property value.

However this the property tax levy for the city of Madison and any other city, it's limited by the increase in net new construction and you know, the city, in other words, can have hundreds of millions of dollars in new construction and what that that adds is just a 1 or 2 or $3 million on the existing levy.

It's a relatively small amount, and so, you know, when you look at a budget where they need to generate in a given year, tens of millions of dollars to pay for the inflationary costs, then that ends up translating into something of a shortfall.

Madison, in particular, hasn't gotten a lot of state aid in recent years, you know, so that's another factor for Madison.

And then also, there's inflation and local governments in some cases.

And school districts have promised wage increases that they know their revenues are not sufficient to pay for.

So that leaves them with either cutting in other areas or going to referendum, which is what many of them are doing.

hole kind of circumstance.

But as to property taxes, you've said that lawmakers over the decades obviously have tried to implement ways to constrain property tax increases and you feel like that might be coming up again?

>> Yes.

I mean, I think particularly since 2011, in Wisconsin, state officials, elected officials have taken very many efforts to rein in local property taxes, and they have been very successful.

So, you know, the property tax burden in the state has fallen.

The state's overall tax burden ranking nationally has fallen.

But this approach, which is to essentially put state mandates on the local government, that they can't do those increases without a referendum and then, you know, some state aid.

But not in general, huge amounts.

Although there was some big increases last year, what that, that approach, I think seems to be coming to an end or faltering.

And I think we still need to see.

But I think the December bills are probably going to demonstrate that.

And spark a conversation in 2025 at the state Capitol about, well, what do we do about this?

How do we respond?

with a new report on post-pandemic pandemic job recovery in Wisconsin.

What's the takeaway?

>> You know, what we're seeing is a pretty strong recovery from the pandemic in which we've now made up for the job losses that we had and employment levels overall statewide have reached their highest levels.

But at the same time, in more than half the counties of the state, that is not the case.

So in some of our urbanized areas like Dane County and then some suburban Twin Cities suburbs area in northwest Wisconsin, other Chicago suburbs like Kenosha County doing well, but at a statewide level.

Still many places that have been left behind that have not caught up.

And in particular, one industry that really stands out is manufacturing our signature industry in Wisconsin.

Again you're seeing some weakness there in terms of the jobs numbers for manufacturing, food processing strong.

But other legacy industries like printing and paper making have just not recovered and are areas of weakness.

that.

Jason Stein, thanks very much.

Thank you.

The start of the new school year is usually underscored by the distant sounds of the marching band practice.

When Mike Leckrone retired from being UW band director, his successor knew he had big shoes to fill.

In this excerpt of the latest in focus with Murv Seymour, he asks the current director, Corey Pompey, about the job and the band's legacy, and 249 what two Greta and I'd love to hear your perspective on what it feels like to be standing on a ten foot ladder in front of all those people, you know, controlling all that music.

>> What's that feeling like for you?

think about it.

So Wiggins RFK, Jr. You know, I enjoy it, you know?

You know, when we perform for thousands and thousands of people, it's an enjoyable experience.

And I love it when I feel like the band is kicking on all cylinders and so I'm very proud of the students at that point.

>> I'm going to go back to something else, referencing doctor McCrone.

When he came on board, one of the things he said he wanted to do was to create an Ed Sullivan type of show experience in terms of how he created the music.

Any thoughts on what you're creating and what your legacy will be when we look back?

>> You know, interestingly lot about legacy.

I certainly hope that that when my time is done here, that people will be proud of the work that has taken place, that they will recognize the UW band as being the UW band.

But my hope is that we've done good work that people can be proud of.

>> How do you balance the tradition with the Steil when it comes to playing the music?

>> As long as the traditions are honored, there is space to introduce new things.

Then there is latitude to be able to, do some new things.

I think that's the best way I can describe it.

Really.

>> Thank you everybody.

>> For more on this and other issues facing Wisconsin, visit our web site at PBS Wisconsin.

Org and then click on the news tab to see all of our election coverage.

Visit Wisconsin Vote.org.

That's our program for tonight I'm Frederica Freyberg.

Have a good weekend.

>> Funding for "Here& Now" is provided by the Focus Fund for Journalism and Friends of PBS.